Uncertainty is inherently related to the process of venturing new technologies. Understanding this uncertainty is thus crucial for managerial decisions. Whereas a lot has been written about dealing with uncertainty and decision-making, such as decision theory approaches, in cases of new technologies high levels of uncertainty are still apparent. This is illustrated by such events as the technology boom-bust on the stock exchange in 2000. Alternative methods are called for, and hence is the topic of this thesis. This thesis proposes an alternative way of dealing with the specific uncertainties surrounding new technology-based ventures with the aim to support decision-making. The thesis builds on an extensive literature study in the topic of uncertainty and establishes a conceptual method that uses three elements to approach this uncertainty. Firstly, define uncertainty in a duality. Secondly, applying probabilities instead of causality arguments to understand this uncertainty. Thirdly, exploring such probabilities through experimentation. For practitioners, the result from the experimentation is a process based performance measurement system that allows decision-makers to better predict performance for new technology-based ventures. For academia, this thesis contributes a new conceptual understanding of uncertainty as well as the introduction of a method that combines system engineering with case study research.    «

Uncertainty is inherently related to the process of venturing new technologies. Understanding this uncertainty is thus crucial for managerial decisions. Whereas a lot has been written about dealing with uncertainty and decision-making, such as decision theory approaches, in cases of new technologies high levels of uncertainty are still apparent. This is illustrated by such events as the technology boom-bust on the stock exchange in 2000. Alternative methods are called for, and hence is the topic...    »