Transboundary river basins are increasingly affected by the combined pressures of climate change, demographic growth, and political instability. In this context, the Nile River Basin (NRB) represents one of the most strategically sensitive hydrological systems worldwide. Relations among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia are shaped by long-standing disputes over water allocation and hydraulic infrastructure, most prominently the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Because water security in the NRB is closely tied to national security perceptions, economic development strategies, and regional power politics, the basin constitutes a critical case for examining the dynamics of conflict and cooperation under conditions of deep interdependence. This doctoral dissertation investigates how interdependent cooperation within the ongoing hydropolitical conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, embedded in the broader context of a potential regional security complex, can be strengthened. Its central objective is to analyze the interaction patterns among the three states and to identify realistic pathways to reduce conflict potential while promoting cooperative governance. The study applies a qualitative research design based on structured qualitative text analysis and follows a funnel model that integrates three theoretical approaches: Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to assess security linkages and threat perceptions, Interdependence Theory to evaluate sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence among riparian actors, and Ostrom’s Theory of Commons to explore institutional solutions and derive actionable recommendations, including benefit-sharing mechanisms. The findings show that Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan form a heterogeneous hydrological subcomplex marked primarily by rivalry and varying degrees of enmity, with the Egyptian–Ethiopian relationship constituting the defining conflict axis. Although diplomatic engagement persists, conflict remains the dominant feature of hydropolitical relations. The interdependence assessment reveals significant asymmetries. Overall, the results indicate that water has been securitized as an existential issue by all three actors, which reinforces conflict dynamics while simultaneously creating a structural need for cooperation. The dissertation concludes that sustainable cooperation in the NRB requires institutional frameworks capable of reducing zero-sum perceptions and translating interdependence into mutual gains. It argues that implementation of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), combined with structured benefit-sharing, offers a feasible path toward improved cooperative governance, enhanced water security, and long-term regional stability.     «

Transboundary river basins are increasingly affected by the combined pressures of climate change, demographic growth, and political instability. In this context, the Nile River Basin (NRB) represents one of the most strategically sensitive hydrological systems worldwide. Relations among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia are shaped by long-standing disputes over water allocation and hydraulic infrastructure, most prominently the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Because water security in the NRB i...     »