Digital twin (DT) – a representation of an object or process from the real into the digital world. Key aspects are the transfer of data and the ability to run simulations as to predict possible future outcomes [1]. This term is also used to describe digital models of large
infrastructure projects as in recent years there have been significant technological advances
in the areas of modeling and simulation. The same applies to the great progress that has
been made in the integrated modeling of project cost, schedule and the risks associated
with these projects.
This paper discusses the project risk twin (PRT) process, which considers the correct
application of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis with additional advanced features
such as risk correlations, dependencies and linkage, event tree analysis, Poisson
distributions for multiple risk occurrences, calculation of potential future delay cost (i.e.,
liquidated damages and penalty cost), and escalation. The PRT process accompanies the
project throughout the planning, construction and operation phase. Key benefits are
understanding, analyzing and proactively mitigating risks, avoiding construction delays
and developing and seizing opportunities. This is achieved through the application of
advanced modeling techniques and simulation to predict future outcomes.
Demonstration of an application of the PRT and the abovementioned features are
presented in the case study. The model is built up and visualized using RIAAT (risk
administration and analysis tool) software.
The PRT process discussed in this paper is consistent with the AACE Recommended
Practice “57R-09: Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using Risk Drivers and
Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model” [2]. The paper also highlights additional
features of the PRT process not covered by RP 57R-09.
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