Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements sufficient in a complex environment such as tunnelling projects, where inadequate modelling of cost and risk can result in estimate discrepancies that run into millions of dollars? This paper explores two advanced probabilistic modelling techniques for tunnelling projects. The first one demonstrates how the cost and schedule uncertainty related to changes in excavation and support classes can be modelled with correlated variables. The second example models the risk related to explosive ordnance clearance on construction sites using a probabilistic event tree.    «

Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements sufficient in a complex environment such as tunnelling projects, where inadequate modelling of cost and risk can result in estimate discrepancies t...    »