So far, an elaborated system for the application of probabilistic methods of analysis for the construction industry has been non-existent. The software found on the market, too, is partially suited to the specific problems of the construction industry. Contractors or customers usually have to rely on themselves if they want to successfully put the theory into practice. In addition, the mathematical requirements make a probabilistic approach difficult to implement without assistance by suitable software and clear structuring. With the RIAAT (Risk Administration and Analysis Tool) software, a risk analysis tool is being developed that is specifically tailored to the requirements of construction projects. For implementation, fundamental probabilistic concepts are examined for usability and adapted as required. For example, a core topic is the selection of the most suitable simulation procedure through which the risks modelled by distributions are aggregated. Specifically, Latin Hypercube Sampling offers advantages as compared to a standard Monte Carlo simulation since the results converge towards the proper analytic result faster and in fewer iterations. The concept around RIAAT includes a standardised valuation system, which – on a probabilistic basis – provides specific procedures supporting the user in modelling the risk scenarios. - selection of suitable pre-defined probability distributions, combined with the option to model distributions individually - detailed assessment of risks according to calculation procedure (own distributions can be defined for the factors bulk and price) - setting of correlations, which enables risks to be modelled with better proximity to reality - handling of multiple risks - processing of event tree analyses As a result of valuation by calculation procedure, it is possible to produce probabilistic cost estimates in addition to probabilistic risk analyses. Risks and costs are managed through catalogues, which can be given a hierarchical tree structure. Cost components enable users to thematically separate project contents (e.g. base costs, risks), and cost elements can be used to create cost relations to various catalogue elements. An MS EXCEL interface enables easy data input and output, and a reporting function can be used to output results as reports with a standardised layout. From a programmer's point of view, RIAAT is a .NET implementation as a separate application, which ensures universal applicability on Windows systems. RIAAT enables unrestricted working with probabilistic methods for risk analyses and cost assessments. In this way, the advantages of probabilistic methods are also accessible to construction projects.     «

So far, an elaborated system for the application of probabilistic methods of analysis for the construction industry has been non-existent. The software found on the market, too, is partially suited to the specific problems of the construction industry. Contractors or customers usually have to rely on themselves if they want to successfully put the theory into practice. In addition, the mathematical requirements make a probabilistic approach difficult to implement without assistance by suitable...    »